Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin artwork

Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin

BIll Gurley

Feb 11, 2026Separator41 min read

Bill Gurley is a veteran venture capitalist and Benchmark partner who helped build iconic companies like Uber and Zillow.

He shares his framework for spotting market outliers and explains how to navigate the shifting landscape of technology and regulation.

His insights offer a practical playbook for mastering your craft and building a career driven by genuine fascination.

Key takeaways

  • Market bubbles reward carelessness, creating a cycle where traditional rules of investing are turned upside down.
  • Venture capital is asymmetric. Missing a massive winner is a far worse mistake than losing money on a failed startup.
  • Mental models and traditional red flags can become traps that prevent investors from seeing the potential in outliers.
  • Using a voting scale that excludes neutral options, like a one to ten range with no fives, ensures that every team member takes a definitive stance on an investment.
  • Effective decision making in a partnership requires evaluating not just the vote itself, but the specific strengths and historical performance of the person casting it.
  • The rush to make every product smart often reduces quality and durability by turning simple appliances into computers that become obsolete quickly.
  • Regulatory capture happens when large companies lobby for rules that protect their status as incumbents instead of laws that promote competition.
  • Overly altruistic mission statements often backfire as companies scale and face inevitable scrutiny.
  • Fascination is more sustainable than grit because it makes continuous learning feel effortless rather than like an exhausting chore.
  • Studying the foundations of a field can reveal a hidden depth to mastery, as seen in Picasso's early mastery of realism.
  • The investment landscape has shifted from niche theories about winner-take-all markets to a universal belief in power laws, turning venture capital into a high-stakes race where losing billions is the entry fee.
  • Venture capitalists should use anxiety to drive their curiosity. If a top app exists that you do not understand, you should feel an urgent need to explore it.
  • In venture capital, it is more important to consider what could go right than what could go wrong because the potential for extreme gains outweighs the risk of losing an investment.
  • Success in business is counterintuitive because winning makes the work harder by increasing stakes and risks rather than providing a chance to rest.
  • Boldness regrets haunt us more than failures because the inaction itself lingers in the mind as a foregone opportunity.
  • The traditional IPO process is a handpicked price and allocation system that often serves as a one day giveaway to a banker's preferred clients.
  • Direct listings provide a more transparent alternative by matching supply and demand through an anonymous auction, similar to how bonds are sold.
  • Adopt a 'strong opinions, loosely held' mindset. You need conviction to make bets, but you should be most interested in information that contradicts your existing worldview.
  • Choosing a specific major at seventeen creates a rigid path dependency that can lead to long-term career dissatisfaction.
  • A simple word of approval can provide the rocket fuel needed to transition from anxiety to full commitment.

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Bill Gurley on the discomfort of market bubbles

00:02 - 01:12

Bill Gurley explains how his background as a Wall Street analyst shaped his investment perspective. Studying public markets and the principles of figures like Warren Buffett or Howard Marks instilled a natural conservatism. This approach differs from the aggressive mentality often found in Silicon Valley. Bill finds he is much calmer during market downturns than during bubbles.

I found through my years of practice that I'm more uncomfortable in bubbles than dark days. In dark days I'm very calm and the job's easy to practice. People listen. The rules get turned so upside down in the bubble that the way you win is by being more careless.

In difficult times, investors tend to listen and fundamental principles apply. Bubbles create a dynamic where carelessness is rewarded. This reinforces an uncomfortable cycle for those who value disciplined investing.

The changing role of analysts and the value of venture capital

01:12 - 04:04

Sell side analysts work for banks to evaluate stocks for clients like hedge funds. Their job involves visiting companies, building business models, and recommending whether to buy or sell. While the ideal version of this role requires deep math and industry understanding to find undervalued companies, the reality has become much more mundane. About 80 to 90 percent of analysts now simply repeat the projections provided by the companies they cover. This lack of independent thought grew after new regulations separated analysts from bankers, leading to less investment in high quality research.

Most analysts are being hand fed the prediction from the company itself and they are just regurgitating it. There is just not a lot of independent thought.

In venture capital, the money is often the least important part of the relationship. At firms like Benchmark, the focus is on early stage investing where the real work begins when a founder only has a PowerPoint. Recruiting makes up about half of the value a venture capitalist provides. Bill explains that investors also need to be salespeople who help founders secure business deals and raise future rounds of funding. This process relies on pattern recognition, a skill that grows as an investor learns to apply lessons from past successes and failures to new situations.

Fifty percent of the value add is recruiting. You are helping the founder build a team around them to go take the hill.

Bill Gurley on missing the Google investment

04:04 - 05:52

Venture capital is an asymmetric business. The biggest error an investor can make is missing out on a massive opportunity. While you can only lose your initial investment once, missing a company that goes to the moon represents a far greater loss. This reality pushes investors to take more risks, even though they must stay disciplined to avoid poor returns.

Bill recalls his team failing to invest in Google when it only had 25 employees. At the time, several factors discouraged the investment. The search market seemed to be collapsing. Major companies like Excite had gone bankrupt, and Yahoo stock had fallen from 82 to 10.

The search market had collapsed, Excite had gone bankrupt. Yahoo stock had fallen from 82 to 10. There were mental models that were telling you no. Both founders who were PhD students wanted to be co-CEO. That is usually a pattern recognition of a red flag.

Bill notes that mental models can become traps. Even though having two PhD students as co-CEOs was traditionally seen as a red flag, other successful investors like Mike Moritz and John Doerr looked past those conventions. They managed to find their way out of the mental box that Bill and his partners were stuck in.

Knowing when to walk away from a successful career

05:53 - 07:28

The decision to leave a successful career often comes from recognizing when you have reached a natural conclusion. Steve Martin's book Born Standing Up illustrates this through his journey in comedy. After more than a decade of struggle, Martin reached a level of fame where he was selling out massive venues. However, he chose to quit at the peak of his success. Bill reflects on this as a model for his own exit from venture capital.

I had watched some very successful VCs overstay their welcome. This has been an incredible job. I have loved every minute of it. But I think I have gotten all I need to get out of it.

Watching others in the industry stay too long served as a warning. It is possible to love a profession while also realizing that you have achieved your goals. For Bill, stepping back from Benchmark was about ending his tenure while his passion for the work was still intact.

The power of equal partnership in venture capital

07:28 - 10:16

Stepping away from a high-stakes career in venture capital often involves a mix of pursuing new interests and recognizing a shift in personal drive. Bill explains that venture capital is essentially a hustle business. At a firm like Benchmark, the equal partnership model means every partner earns the exact same amount of money. This structure creates a form of healthy peer pressure. If a partner is no longer able to run at full speed, the culture encourages them to opt out rather than coast.

The venture capital business is as much a hustle business as it is anything. I was part of an equal partnership, and that's what made Benchmark everything it is. Everyone makes the exact same amount of money, and it creates this very healthy peer pressure that says if you're not in it and running full bore, maybe you should opt out.

In many traditional businesses, senior leaders stay too long and take too much equity, which can alienate younger talent. The equal partnership model avoids this pitfall by distributing power and rewards evenly. While the day to day work of a partner is mostly autonomous, investment decisions are made through a majority vote. The team uses a simple one to ten voting scale but forbids the number five. This prevents anyone from taking a neutral stance and ensures clear decisions.

Bill notes that this distributed power is excellent for recruiting and developing young people because they are given a seat at the table immediately. While voting is the formal process, some of the biggest wins were obvious to everyone from the start.

A few of our big wins, everyone would raise their hand. I remember on Twitter, I don't even know if we voted. We just started talking about how we were going to try and win the deal.

Group dynamics and pattern recognition in venture capital

10:16 - 12:03

The investment in Twitter was unusual because it was a Series C round. Most investments at the firm happened at the Series A or Series B stages. However, the signals were too strong to ignore. When looking at social networks, certain patterns indicate long term success. Viral growth is important, but retention is the critical factor. If users stay on the platform while it grows, the business can endure for a long time.

If the retention is there, if you have viral growth and retention, it can go forever. Even though it was before the company made money, you just knew.

Venture capital firms use group voting to make decisions. It is rare for a team to be unanimous. Usually, about two thirds of the group will support a deal while one third disagrees. Bill notes that understanding these group dynamics is a major advantage. It is important to know the strengths and weaknesses of each partner. A vote is not just a number. It is a data point that must be interpreted based on who is providing it and what they are good at.

One of the benefits of group dynamics is you know the strength and weaknesses of each partner. You can not only evaluate the vote, but who is giving the vote and what they might be good at.

Venture capital waves and the market obsession with AI

12:03 - 17:23

Most venture capital investments happen in waves rather than as isolated, unique ideas. This occurs because the industry relies heavily on pattern recognition. From the PC revolution to the mobile era, history shows a series of technological shifts that investors learn to identify. When a new framework like mobile computing arrives, it allows many similar companies to be built on top of it at once. This trend often forces founders to align their ideas with the current wave even if it is not a natural fit.

Right now venture capitalists have less than zero interest in any non AI deal. I have watched it happen so often. A vast majority of venture investments are in companies that serve enterprises. The CIOs and the CEOs have all read the same stuff and they go back to their teams and ask for an AI strategy. It affects their allocation of capital and becomes holistic.

Bill explains that this obsession is fueled by enterprise demand. Companies are desperate for an AI strategy, which shifts how they spend money. This market pressure makes it difficult for any non AI startup to gain traction with investors. If an investor is a contrarian, they might look for non AI deals now because no one else is paying attention. However, the majority of the world is moving in the same direction at the same time.

The push for smart technology has also extended to physical products. Adding Wi-Fi and screens to appliances like ovens or refrigerators often makes them less functional. These items begin to function more like computers. As a result, they require replacement much sooner than traditional models. This shift creates more work for the user and does not necessarily improve the product experience.

If you get an oven or a refrigerator with Wi-Fi and a screen you are like, what the hell? It just creates more work than it does. Same is true with cars. Buying a car now is more like buying a computer. In two or three years you are definitely going to need a new model because it will just be a different thing.

Moving from venture capital to policy influence

17:34 - 20:14

Leaving a career in venture capital is not an immediate break. The industry is structured so that partners serve out the board seats they committed to during their active years. Bill still spends about half of his time managing six venture boards even after deciding to stop making new investments. This transition period allowed him to go on a listening tour to figure out his next steps.

He explored many paths and met with legendary figures in finance like Stanley Druckenmiller. While many successful people in finance transition into managing their own money, Bill realized he was a venture capitalist rather than an asset manager. He also considered high-volume angel investing but decided against it after seeing friends like Tony manage hundreds of deals.

Venture capital is like having eight children. Having 200 angel deals is like having 200 children. It was the opposite of what I was looking for. But it was on the list originally. I thought I could go do this.

Bill now plans to start a policy institute. This organization will focus on major issues like regulatory capture. He aims to synthesize these complex problems and use his narrative skills to influence public policy and create change.

The mechanics of regulatory capture

20:14 - 22:36

Silicon Valley's success is partially due to being 2,851 miles away from Washington D.C. This distance allowed it to grow without constant interference. Regulatory capture is the idea that regulation usually protects big companies rather than limiting them. Bill notes that these companies use lobbying and money to get laws written in their favor. This process turns regulation into a tool for the powerful to keep their positions.

Regulation most often ends up protecting the incumbent. The world thinks the opposite is true. Companies get big, they spend money lobbying, and they get laws written to help them rather than to constrain them.

Over time, capitalism and democracy can corrupt each other. The most broken industries, like finance and healthcare, are the ones with the most regulation. This happens because the government becomes too involved in the industry. One specific issue is how politicians on certain committees can raise money from the very industries they oversee. Solving this might require looking at how other countries handle these issues or implementing term limits.

The evolution of corporate mission and innovation

22:36 - 27:56

Maintaining a small company's original mission becomes difficult as it grows. Regulatory pressures often force large organizations to prioritize their own interests over their founding values. However, some leaders like Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos successfully maintained high innovation and speed even at a large scale. They used specific philosophies to keep the spirit of a startup alive.

The concept of moving fast and breaking things has changed over time. Originally, it was a way to avoid bureaucracy and stay innovative. Today, people view this approach more critically due to concerns about the impact of big tech on politics and children. This shift reflects the evolving relationship between technology and society.

Anytime a founder creates a mission statement that is overly altruistic, they are going to invite future criticism at some point. It has become a very common thing. It gets to the point of ridicule.

Bill Gurley notes that modern mission statements often feel forced. He points to the evolution of Jeff Bezos's letters to shareholders. They began with a respectful tone but eventually became more dismissive of outside opinions. This shift shows how the balance of power and communication changes as founders gain more influence.

Greatness across different fields often follows a similar pattern. Bill studied the lives of a basketball coach, a folk singer, and a restaurateur. Despite their different industries, they all used a programmatic and intentional approach from the start. Success often comes from applying these systematic strategies to fields that are typically seen as less traditional or formal.

The unexpected path from presentation to book

27:57 - 30:04

Bill Gurley started working on his book a decade ago, though it did not begin as a book project. Originally, it was just a PowerPoint presentation that served as a passion project unrelated to his day job. He felt a strong internal drive to pursue the idea simply because it was eating at him. This creative outlet was unusual for him at the time.

It's not like I had a history of doing passion projects. It was something like, oh, it was eating at me. I want to do this.

The project gained momentum after James Clear, the author of Atomic Habits, shared a video of the presentation online. Later, a meeting with Brian Koppelman provided the final push. Brian frequently challenged people to identify creative projects they were pursuing outside of their professional careers. He specifically urged Bill to turn his speech into a book, providing the necessary directive to move forward.

Brian was going around to almost everybody asking him, what creative project are you doing outside of your career? He looks at me and he goes, you have to make this a book.

Bill realized that inspiration often comes from outside sources rather than just internal desire. This external encouragement from a talented creative person gave him the confidence to step outside his normal role and embrace a new challenge.

Bill Gurley on notes and the luxury of inspired writing

30:05 - 31:23

Bill does not keep a formal journal. Instead, he maintains a vast collection of digital notes regarding his ideas. He prefers tools like Notion or phone notes apps that synchronize perfectly between desktop and mobile devices. This ensures his thoughts are always up to date and can be shared easily with others for collaboration.

His writing frequency has changed significantly throughout his career. When he started as a sell side analyst, he produced a weekly report sent by fax. As he became a more successful venture capitalist, his output dropped to two or three long pieces a year. These articles are much more thoughtful and require significantly more effort to produce. Bill relates this shift to an interview with author Michael Lewis about choosing when to write.

Luckily I've been successful enough that I only do it when I am inspired so I don't have to. And that's a wonderful place to be.

Bill Gurley on faith and personal morality

31:23 - 32:38

Bill grew up deeply connected to the Episcopal Church. His mother was religious, and his entire social life as a child was built around church activities. He participated in rituals like being an acolyte and completing confirmation. As he focused more on his education and career, he began reading extensively and developed questions about organized religion. He now believes that a person can have a strong moral compass and a sense of purpose without needing to follow a specific religious path.

I'd like to believe in the ability to have a strong moral compass and moral purpose without the weight of having to declare an allegiance to a particular course.

While Bill does not pray, he has used meditation at various points in his life. He found that it significantly improved his sleep quality. He values meditation for its practical ability to quiet the mind during the middle of the night.

The ability to turn your brain off at three in the morning is really, really useful.

The role of fascination in career success

32:40 - 35:44

Jerry Seinfeld once used the word fascination during a graduation speech, and it serves as a better guide for a career than the overused concept of passion. For a career to be truly successful, a person needs a constant desire to learn. This learning becomes tedious if it feels like work. Bill notes that when learning is fueled by fascination, it becomes free. It does not cost any mental energy to keep going. This distinction is vital because purely focusing on grit can be counterproductive.

The word passion got overused a bit. One element of being very successful in a career is having the desire to learn all the time and that becomes tedious unless it's free. When I say it's free, it means it doesn't cost you any energy to go do it.

Angela Duckworth, the author of Grit, later reflected that passion might actually be more important than perseverance. Many children are pushed through a grinder of athletics, music, and academics, teaching them to persevere at an almost obnoxious level. Without a genuine love for the activity, this constant pressure leads to exhaustion and burnout. This is often worse than never starting at all because the person might lose their ability to persevere entirely. Bill suggests that true fascination is a deep desire to learn a field at an exhaustive level that feels rewarding.

Another way to stand out is by studying the legends and history of an industry. Most people do not take the time to learn the bedrock of their field, so doing this work makes a candidate highly differentiated. Even Magnus Carlson, the world renowned chess player, once won a trivia contest held during a tournament. This shows that the greats often have a deep knowledge of the history of their craft, which provides the foundation they need to innovate.

The value of studying the greats

35:44 - 38:49

Picasso's early work offers a surprising look at his technical mastery. Before he became known for his unique abstract style, he painted in the traditional realism of his time and even won awards for it. Seeing these early pieces in Barcelona is mind expanding because they differ so much from the common perception of his art. Understanding the history of a field is a valuable test. If studying the foundations of a craft feels uncomfortable, that field might not be the right fit for you.

It is so mind expanding when you go in that Barcelona museum and see the realism and how good it is. It is so different from the perception that everyone has. I think being able to study the bedrock is just so wonderful for the people that do it.

While studying the greats is helpful, it is not a universal rule for success. In music genres like hip hop, some artists find strength by completely disregarding the past. Bill believes any path to success is possible. He wants to give people the permission and the tools they need to chase their own interests with confidence. For most people, studying those who came before provides a helpful foundation for their own work.

The shift toward high stakes capital and intuition

38:55 - 45:53

Early stage venture capital is fundamentally driven by intuition because data does not exist yet at the start of a company. While investors might consider market size or price points, the decision making process relies more on gut feeling than analytics. Bill observes that later stage investing is the opposite. There, teams of people analyze massive amounts of data. In early stages, a group of independent thinkers is valuable because their combined perspectives generate more collective intuition.

Because it is intuition, I think this concept of a group of independent thinkers who have different perspectives is why that is the normal approach to decision making. You get more intuition out of a group decision than you would out of an independent decision.

History shows that massive investment can lead to bubbles, but it does not mean the underlying technology is not real. During the dot com era, many companies went bankrupt, yet their business models eventually became multi billion dollar categories. Amazon narrowly avoided failure while losing over a billion dollars a year to reach escape velocity. Today, the scale of spending has reached unprecedented levels. Bill notes that OpenAI is burning cash at five times the rate of Uber or Amazon during their peak spending years.

The investment landscape has shifted because concepts like increasing returns and power laws are now widely accepted. In the past, people believed that companies with thirty percent market share would eventually hit a ceiling. Now, everyone expects winner take all monopolies in tech. This belief has turned venture capital into something more like Formula One racing. To compete for the top prize in AI, companies may have to be willing to lose a billion dollars a year just to stay in the game.

OpenAI has a burn rate that is five times that size. This is not your father's venture capital. It has become more of an F1 type endeavor than it used to be.

Bill Gurley on AI adoption and the curiosity mindset

45:53 - 48:56

OpenAI appears to have reached escape velocity in the consumer market. As the platform improves its memory and gains access to more personal data, its position becomes self-reinforcing. Bill integrates AI into his daily routine, using it 30 to 40 times a day for various tasks. He views the tool as a way to learn faster and prepare for complex interactions.

I've taught myself when anything pops up, you dive in. In fact, I'm diving into these AI products with zero concern for privacy, which may not be the right answer, but I want to see what they're capable of, so I'm willing to take the risk.

For venture capitalists, curiosity should be driven by a healthy sense of anxiety. If a new app reaches the top of the charts and a VC does not know what it is, they should feel a sense of urgency to learn. Bill uses AI to accelerate this process. He uses it to research new industries or prepare for meetings by finding overlaps in work and identifying potential conversation sparks.

Some people stop using AI after encountering a mistake, but Bill views this as a mistake. He estimates that AI might be wrong 10 to 15 percent of the time. This is comparable to many other information sources. Instead of dismissing the technology, users should observe how the models improve over time. Finding an error is a reason to double-check facts, not a reason to turn the tool off entirely.

I've been hanging out with more academicians recently and some of them say, oh, I've made it create an error and so they just like turn it off. I tell them, you know, you should take a model from three years ago and a model from a year ago and a model that you get tomorrow and run the same prompt... having an attitude that means stop is probably not the right.

The unique fears surrounding artificial intelligence

48:56 - 51:01

Fear of new technology is a constant in human history, similar to the resistance against looms. AI feels different because it threatens white collar jobs. Bill notes that previous waves affected agriculture and labor, but this one alarms the people who write the articles. There are also concerns about AI being used for weaponry. Like fire, which provides warmth but can also destroy, AI has dual potential. It is impossible to stop the technology or put it back in the box.

I don't think that it is possible to put it back in the box. You are not going to cancel it. Fire does a lot of good things and it burned down a big portion of this town.

Another major concern involves social isolation. There is a risk that AI could lead people into a digital cave, affecting their ability to be present in the real world. This mirrors the themes in the movie Her, which accurately predicted these dynamics ten years before they became reality. Bill finds it remarkable that the film remains believable today. Many of its concepts have become ordinary.

Identifying founder traits and asymmetric upside

51:02 - 55:38

Bill looks for specific traits when he meets with founders. One of the most important qualities is unbridled determinism. Jeff Bezos once shared that this is the primary factor he looks for in his own angel investments. Bezos wants to know if a person will build their company regardless of whether they receive funding from him or anyone else.

I only look for one thing. Is this person going to do this no matter what, whether I give him money or not, whether no one gives them money or not.

Salesmanship is another powerful trait that can influence an investment decision. Bill recalls being pitched by Adam Neumann for WeWork. Even though the business was in real estate and outside his firm's typical tech focus, Adam’s effectiveness as a salesman was a major factor in moving forward. Other positive signs include a product with natural momentum, a truly revolutionary intellectual insight, or a unique go to market approach.

When several of these positive signals are strong, Bill believes it is okay to ignore standard investment rules. Venture capital is an asymmetric game. An investor can only lose their money once, but the potential for returns is massive. Bill’s partner Bruce uses the phrase what could go right to guide their thinking. This mindset encourages being open to unusual ideas because the risk of missing a major success is higher than the risk of a failed investment.

If it works, the multiple is extreme and you're only going to lose one time your money. You really have to be more afraid of it working and not investing.

Why emotional investments create poor financial returns

55:42 - 57:10

The music industry was a graveyard for venture capitalists until Daniel Ek built Spotify. Before that, early investments often ended in disaster. In some cases, the legal pressure from industry groups became personal. One investor was even told that the head of the RIAA knew where his children went to school. Bill admires Daniel Ek as a warm human and an old soul. He expresses regret for not being part of the Spotify journey, noting that the experience would have been incredibly fun.

This is why wineries and restaurants and nightclubs are really bad investments. Because you have so many people that are investing for non IRR basis. They want to be a part of it and so you get over entry, over supply.

Emotional involvement can cloud an investor's vision. When people invest in things they are passionate about, like music or hospitality, they often ignore the financial fundamentals. This leads to an oversupply of these businesses because the investors are looking for social status or personal enjoyment rather than a strict internal rate of return.

The importance of betting on founders over ideas

57:11 - 58:25

Early in a venture capital career, it is easy to focus too much on markets and technology. You might think you need a broad intellectual palette to understand every customer and industry trend. Over time, the focus shifts. The most important factor is the founder. A very small percentage of the population has the power to bend the earth to their will. This makes betting on the person more important than betting on the idea.

You probably are underweighting the critical importance of the founder themselves and what they're capable of. I think over time you learn that there's a small percentage of the population that's just capable of bending the earth to their will.

Great founders can adapt. Even if they start in the wrong industry or with the wrong product, they can pivot. Their value comes from a specific combination of speed, vision, and salesmanship. These traits allow them to succeed where others might fail. Bill emphasizes that these founders are different because they possess the drive to make their vision a reality regardless of the initial plan.

The challenge of scaling from founder to CEO

58:26 - 59:59

Founders and operators differ in fundamental ways, and the path to becoming an effective CEO of a large company is often a learned journey. Bill notes that many venture capital firms look for founders who are willing to lead their companies for the long term, but these individuals must also be willing to learn the art of management. While founders excel at product development and speed, leading a massive organization of 10,000 people requires a different set of skills that few are born with.

We talk a lot about founders around product and speed and ideas and salesmanship even. But leading 10,000 people is leading 10,000 people. I don't think very many people are born with an innate grasp of how to do that. It is hard.

Bill mentions the impact of Bill Campbell, a legendary coach often described as the Rick Rubin of Silicon Valley. Campbell played a crucial role in the development of Larry Page and Sergey Brin at Google, even leading management meetings long after the company went public. When a founder can pair their original vision with the operating insights of an experienced coach, they have a much higher chance of success as the company scales.

The burdens of success and the evolution of crypto

59:59 - 1:02:34

Success in the entrepreneurial world differs significantly from the artistic process. When an artist succeeds, they can often pause or refresh their creative energy. In business, winning only increases the difficulty level. The stakes grow larger, the headcount rises, and the risks intensify. Bill notes that few people prepare founders for the reality that success makes life harder rather than easier.

I've had long conversations with entrepreneurs. If you think this is bad, wait until you're more successful. But it's not something that people think about when they start at the beginning.

The trajectory of crypto in Silicon Valley followed a pattern of intense developer interest followed by a cooling off period when AI emerged. Initially, the space was defined by both innovation and gray areas. This included concerns about fraud and untraceable transactions. This period of snake oil behavior eventually subsided as AI captured the collective attention of developers.

This shift away from the spotlight allowed crypto to develop escape velocity. The technology has matured enough that it is no longer purely speculative. Stablecoins have emerged as a legitimate real world use case. With a shifting political environment that has become more supportive of the industry, crypto is positioned to be highly disruptive moving forward.

The evolution and utility of stablecoins

1:02:34 - 1:06:37

A stablecoin is a digital token on a blockchain that tracks the value of a specific currency, most commonly the US dollar. These tokens are designed to maintain a one-to-one backing. If a provider sells more tokens, they must buy real dollars or Treasuries to keep underneath them. This structure ensures that the token always represents an actual dollar. While the value can drop if people lose faith in the provider, there is no reason for speculators to think it will ever be worth more than a dollar.

If you have a wallet of any kind and I have a wallet of any kind, I can send you $25,000 in two seconds and it will cost me two cents to send it to you.

Many countries have already implemented successful digital payment systems. The UK, China, India, and Brazil have systems that allow people to move money between accounts instantly. Bill notes that the US has been slow to adopt this, likely due to regulatory capture. In the US, an ACH transfer still takes three days to clear, and wire transfers are expensive and require extensive paperwork. Stablecoins solve this friction by moving money at the speed of the internet.

There is also a distinction between trusting a government to back its financial obligations and trusting it to be a fair arbiter in business. Most people keep money in banks because they trust the FDIC insurance rather than the bank itself. While some see Bitcoin as a tool to escape government control or hyperinflation, the US dollar remains the standard. However, the rise of gold prices suggests there are growing concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar.

The art of narrative storytelling in non-fiction

1:06:39 - 1:12:31

Bill approached his book with the mental framework of a fan of long-form non-fiction and the New New Journalism movement. This style uses narrative tools like character arcs and heroes to make non-fiction more readable and engaging. He wanted to move away from dry, clinical writing and instead create a work that felt like a series of compelling stories. To accomplish this, he worked with a research partner and academic teams to find deep insights, including a survey showing that sixty percent of people would change their career if they could go back in time.

I'd like to believe, since my objective function is to influence people to chase their dreams, that if it were just a list of principles, it would read like a textbook. I think it would be harder to envision yourself launching through it. But what I'm hopeful is by alternating these full stories that are meant to read as almost standalone stories, they reinforce the principles.

The book uses a unique structure that alternates between profiles of success and principles for success. This episodic format ensures there is a payoff on every page, preventing the reader from feeling like they are wading through endless text. Bill specifically searched for stories of intentionality rather than accidental success. He highlights figures like Danny Meyer, who abandoned a stable career path to open a restaurant after a single life-changing conversation. These stories serve as evidence that a person can consciously decide to change their life trajectory.

The power of overcoming boldness regrets

1:12:31 - 1:15:29

The concept of disinhibiting is central to helping people chase their dream jobs. Boldness regrets are often the most powerful form of regret because they focus on the things we did not do. These foregone opportunities linger in the mind much more heavily than failures. Bill notes that what haunts people most is the inaction itself.

Jerry Seinfeld is a classic example of someone who needed to be disinhibited. He wanted to be a comedian but did not believe it was a viable path. This changed after he read two books that profiled people making money in comedy and explained their techniques.

Seinfeld did not believe it was possible until he read these two books where someone had basically made a list of 14 people who had made money doing this and here is how they do it. And that gave him confidence that it was possible.

The current education system often limits this kind of exploration. Young people are put through a pressure cooker that removes play and discovery. Students are frequently forced to choose a major early, leading to path dependency where they are locked into a career before they can explore. With AI making many stable jobs uncertain, the need to pursue work you love becomes even more urgent. Bill mentions a favorite phrase that life is a use it or lose it proposition.

Life is a use it or lose it proposition. And it ties into the boldness regret point. Why not do what you love with this life that we have?

Bill Gurley on the late discovery of reading and cold calling experts

1:15:30 - 1:17:46

Bill did not discover a love for reading until he was 25 years old. In high school, he struggled with reading and writing and earned a C grade. This academic struggle was reflected in his SAT scores, where he scored a 780 in math but only a 410 in English. His transition into a writer would likely surprise his former teachers because of his early lack of interest in the subject.

I didn't fall in love with reading until I was about 25. On the SAT, I had a 780 math and a 410 English. Near remedial. But when it flipped, it went completely over the top. It is such a great feeling, the love of books and the excitement of what you can find out.

When looking for high-quality information, Bill relies on a vast network of personal connections. He has become comfortable cold calling experts in specific fields to learn about new topics. This ability to reach out to strangers was developed through his career in venture capital. That industry requires a significant amount of salesmanship to succeed.

Bill also follows several prominent interviewers in the podcast world. He points to Patrick O'Shaughnessy as a phenomenal interviewer in the investing space. He also listens to Lex Fridman and Tim Ferriss. He notes that Tim was the catalyst for Austin, Texas, becoming a major hub for podcasters.

Philanthropy and the pursuit of measurable impact

1:17:46 - 1:19:41

Philanthropy often focuses more on intent than actual results. Many politicians and philanthropists announce their goals but fail to follow up and see if the outcome changed for the better. Good policy and effective giving should be held to the standard of measurable impact. Finding charitable efforts that offer high confidence in their effectiveness is difficult, but it is the necessary bar for redistributing wealth.

I think intent is very different than outcome. And I think a lot of politicians and philanthropists hang their banner out on their intent, but don't follow up to see whether the actual outcome is impacted.

Bill is exploring the creation of a policy institute to address large problems where capital can clearly lead to success. He finds promise in models like Invest America, which provides 1,000 dollars for every child at birth. This initiative allows private donors to contribute alongside the government to support specific states or zip codes. This combination of public and private funding represents a powerful and unique vehicle for change.

Trust and ethical challenges in venture capital

1:19:42 - 1:20:56

Effective altruism can lead to legal trouble when followers believe that the ends justify the means. This mindset makes people comfortable with being duplicitous to achieve their goals. Bill finds this approach off-putting and notes that it often leads people to cross ethical and legal lines.

They've convinced themselves that the ends justify the means. Once you've put yourself in that place, you're very likely to cross a line that would potentially put you in jail.

Maintaining trust is one of the most difficult parts of venture capital, especially when a company is struggling. Relationships become strained because investors must consider alternative paths when things go wrong. Doing nothing feels like failing at the job. This necessity leads to very uncomfortable conversations about replacing or augmenting founders, which Bill describes as some of the hardest parts of the business.

The challenge of building effective corporate boards

1:20:56 - 1:22:08

Creating a truly effective corporate board is a difficult task. While some founders and CEOs work hard to make their boards successful, many large companies fall into a pattern of bureaucracy. These boards often function as committees that follow a checklist. Their main goal is usually to avoid legal trouble rather than to help the company grow. This approach takes time away from making the management team better or looking after the interests of the shareholders.

For many companies, especially the bigger companies, you end up with a lot of bureaucratic committees that have a checklist of things they have to do that mostly have to do with not getting in trouble with lawyers.

Bill Gurley notes that the current system for many large companies feels broken. To build a board that actually works, you need a group of people who bring a diverse set of skills and experiences to the table. These members must have mutual respect for one another and take the job seriously. Achieving this combination of factors is a significant challenge for any organization.

The misalignment of corporate boards and shareholder interests

1:22:09 - 1:23:18

Corporate boards often struggle because many members focus on minimizing legal risk for themselves or the company rather than driving innovation. These career board members tend to follow a box-checking approach. They hire compensation consultants to justify decisions and ensure everything looks fair on paper. This process often ignores what is actually best for the business.

For the average American shareholder, what can go wrong is you just have a bunch of career board members whose main activity is to minimize legal risk for either themselves or the company. You're just checking a bunch of boxes. We did this the right way. We paid the compensation consultant. We know it's fair. You're not thinking innovative.

Bill highlights the original pay package for Elon Musk as an example of strong alignment. While it faced legal challenges, Bill explains that he would love to see that same structure in every company he invests in. The deal ensured that the leader only gained wealth if the shareholders also won. Most CEOs would likely reject such a high-risk package, and most boards would be too cautious to offer it.

I would be ecstatic as a shareholder in every company I've ever invested in. I would think 98 percent of the CEOs would say no to the package because it was so insanely in line with shareholder interest. You only make money if they make money. I don't care if it's outsized if we're all winning.

The flaws of traditional IPOs and the rise of direct listings

1:23:19 - 1:25:55

The traditional IPO process is fundamentally broken. It often suffers from regulatory capture. Most people think an IPO works by matching supply and demand in an anonymous auction. This is how bonds are sold and how a direct listing functions. In a standard IPO, the banker picks the price and handpicks who gets the shares. This results in a hand allocated price that often leads to a massive first day giveaway to the banker's clients.

The IPO is one of the only high dollar transactions in our world where the same advisor is advising two people on opposite sides and the one they spend the most time with is not the company. The company goes public once. Most founders or CEOs will do two at most. Most do one. So you have no experience coming into this.

A direct listing is a simpler match between buyers and sellers. Daniel at Spotify spent a year making the first one happen. It was a difficult process but proved it could work. Bill notes that the smartest founders are often the most open to this change. Many other founders treat an IPO like a wedding. They are afraid to do anything non-traditional because they are anxious. They let the traditional process roll over them instead of thinking independently.

The shift away from public markets

1:25:55 - 1:28:14

Some companies may be better off staying private, particularly high cash flow businesses in industries like gambling or alcohol that might not receive a high valuation from the public markets. There is a growing trend of major companies choosing to remain private indefinitely. Bill mentions that Stripe has shifted from delaying its IPO to potentially never going public. Koch Industries is another well-known example of a company that has never entered the public markets.

If these companies wait and go public after they're fully mature, those growth opportunities aren't available to the average investor.

This shift away from public markets creates a challenge for average investors. In the past, companies like Amazon went public early in their growth cycles, allowing regular citizens to benefit from their success. Today, the number of public companies is half of what it used to be. High regulatory costs and the risk of litigation are significant barriers. Even small companies can face insurance costs of two to three million dollars just to protect their board of directors. Lowering these costs and reducing regulation could help bring more companies back to the public market.

Embracing an abundant mindset through community and peers

1:28:14 - 1:32:43

Bill finds deep enjoyment in the pageantry of college football. The intense fandom at places like LSU is remarkable. Fans often arrive early in the morning to start their weekend rituals. This passion creates a unique atmosphere. Bill grew up playing basketball, but he finds college football has a special character. It fosters a sense of shared identity among fans.

This sense of community extends to how Bill interacts with friends. He uses curated text threads to discuss specific topics. These include regulatory capture, AI, and alt country music. His love for alt country began in his early twenties. He transitioned from bands like REM to the punk influenced sounds of Uncle Tupelo. Alt country differs from pop country because it is less poppy and has more blues influences.

If you see all your peers as competitors, you get insular and you raise up fences and you block things off. One of the principles I am most proud of is this idea of embracing peers.

The core idea is to adopt an abundant mindset. Many people naturally view their peers as competitors. They feel they must protect their ideas and stay isolated. Bill argues that the more we share, the more our skills improve. Breaking new ground involves seeing peers as a tribe rather than as enemies.

The power of peer networks and collective learning

1:32:43 - 1:34:14

Mentors are often the focus of professional development, but building a network of peers is equally powerful. When a group of people on the same journey share their findings, everyone learns much faster. It is possible to accelerate the learning rate by four or five times compared to studying alone.

If you're all out gathering ideas and you come back and share them, you're learning at 4x the rate or 5x the rate that you would be otherwise.

Bill encourages leaders to have their teams develop relationships with five peers at nearby companies. These should be people in similar roles but not at direct competitors. Despite the clear benefits, many people find this concept foreign or difficult to implement. Great figures like Warren Buffett and Howard Marks demonstrate the value of this transparency by writing about their work and sharing insights as they go along. Sharing knowledge openly is beneficial for the world and is a common trait among high achievers.

Mentors, mental models, and the value of a gambler's mindset

1:34:14 - 1:40:31

Mentors do not have to be people you talk to every day. Aspirational mentors, who you study from a distance, can be just as valuable as in person mentors. Bill points to Danny Meyer as a prime example. Early in his career, Danny studied ten innovators in the restaurant world. He did not know them at the time, but their success served as a disinhibitor. It showed him that a successful career in that field was possible. Eventually, he met all of them, but the relationship started with distance and study.

I think you can have aspirational mentors which are separate from your in person mentors. And if you're wildly successful, you start meeting these people. Meeting those people and establishing a relationship with them is one of the most rewarding things that can happen in your life.

In the world of venture capital and decision making, Bill follows the philosophy of strong opinions, loosely held. You need strong opinions to act and make bets. However, you must remain constantly worried that your mental models are outdated. You should be especially interested in information that is inconsistent with your worldview. When something does not make sense based on what you believe, it is an opportunity to understand what someone else knows that you do not.

Bill views himself as a gambler, a trait developed from counting cards in Las Vegas and playing poker. This background led him to the venture industry because it instilled the idea of betting on an edge. Poker lessons regarding position and knowing when to press a bet often translate directly to business negotiations. Beyond gambling, salesmanship and public speaking are universal skills. Warren Buffett famously displays his Dale Carnegie certificate rather than his college degree. Learning to speak in front of a camera and watching yourself back is valuable in any field.

I do believe that there were moments in my venture career where I'm making a decision or I'm in a negotiation and I'm bringing up lessons that I've learned at the table. It is about knowing edge, where you are in position, and whether you have the ability to press a bet or not.

The challenges and benefits of higher education

1:40:32 - 1:43:04

Higher education faces significant structural problems today. The cost of college is rising much faster than the GDP. Prestigious universities refuse to increase enrollment. This dynamic drives prices higher and leads to disappointment for many students. Some state schools are attempting to scale by significantly increasing enrollment. These efforts deserve more attention and rewards.

Choosing a major at seventeen is also a major problem. It is too specific and happens too soon. This creates a path dependency that lasts for years. A student might spend years on a path only to realize they hate their career. Bill believes this timeline is far too rigid for young people.

Applying to a major when you are 17 is just crazy. It is too specific, too soon. The path dependency from there for the next six or seven years until you realize you hate your job is just a lot.

The Thiel Fellowship has proven successful for elite talent. However, skipping college is not the right choice for everyone. College offers a necessary social playground with rubber bumpers on the walls. It allows young people to learn how the world works in a safe environment. This is similar to basketball players going pro out of high school. A few are ready for the leap immediately. Many others benefit from the coaching and skill development found in a structured program.

The power of permission and wholehearted commitment

1:43:06 - 1:45:42

A story from the book Greenlights by Matthew McConaughey illustrates the power of receiving permission. While a student at the University of Texas, McConaughey felt deep anxiety about telling his father he wanted to switch his major to film. His father simply told him not to half-ass it. This response was the best thing he could have heard. It provided him with blessing, validation, and freedom. The advice gave him the rocket fuel he needed to pursue his new path with a sense of honor and responsibility.

Don't half-ass it. It gave him blessing and consent, approval and validation, honor, freedom, responsibility, and rocket fuel. Just in that word.

Sharing these moments can help others find their own sense of permission. A clear signal of approval can transform doubt into a serious commitment. It allows individuals to stop hesitating and start working toward their goals with everything they have. This validation acts as a catalyst for future success.

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