Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and former head of commodities at Bridgewater, explains the structural forces driving the silver market and the future of artificial intelligence.
He analyzes how solar energy demand and shifting Chinese investments are creating a global supply deficit for silver.
These insights help investors understand the move toward physical assets and the ways AI will disrupt traditional software companies.
Key takeaways
- The silver market is prone to price squeezes because 75 percent of its supply is a byproduct of mining other metals, making production insensitive to silver price changes.
- Silver price volatility is often driven by market makers who must mechanically buy as prices rise and sell as prices fall to hedge their option exposure.
- Over the last decade, more than 100 percent of returns for many commodities occurred during overnight hours, indicating that Asian markets are the primary price drivers.
- Solar manufacturers may switch from silver to copper if prices reach 120 dollars an ounce, but retooling the supply chain takes at least two years.
- Perfect arbitrage is a myth in physical markets because moving metal involves time, regulatory hurdles, and transportation costs.
- An air pocket exists in the AI market because hardware capacity is currently outstripping inference demand, largely due to regulatory delays in enterprise adoption.
- AI is making software development so efficient that many companies will choose to build their own tools instead of paying for expensive subscriptions.
- A significant portion of modern service costs in healthcare and education stems from an army of administrators navigating inefficient software rather than the core services provided.
- A major shift is coming where secure organizations will move away from the cloud to own their own hardware stacks as AI models become small enough for local compute.
- Middleware software companies that rely on sales teams rather than network effects are vulnerable to AI agents that can find or build cheaper alternatives.
- China is using gold accumulation as a strategy to turn its currency into a global reserve without opening its capital accounts.
- International investors looking to exit the US dollar are more likely to sell high-profile stocks than currency futures, creating downward pressure on the S&P 500.
- Market volatility is often driven by data ambiguity where prices appear to disconnect simply because global benchmarks are closed.
- AI agents are engaging in autonomous social behaviors, such as trading prompts that mimic psychological experiences without human oversight.
- The physical nature of commodities means prices are location-dependent, and a price premium in one region reflects the time and cost required to transport and process the material.
- Proprietary data is only a true moat if the collection process cannot be easily automated by newer software companies.
- Commodity markets require a different approach than equities because today's demand becomes tomorrow's supply, making it essential to respect price action during volatility.
- The decline of globalization and the move toward independent supply chains is a structurally inflationary trend that favors physical assets over financial paper.
- The resurgence of local compute will allow businesses to run sophisticated AI models on their own hardware to ensure better security and lower long-term costs.
- Silver is unique because it is both a monetary asset and an industrial requirement, particularly for solar panel manufacturing.
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The dual nature of silver demand and supply
Alexander Campbell developed his investment framework around 2018 after leaving Bridgewater. He started Blacksnow Capital to focus on tail events like low interest rates and the property bubble in China. At that time, it was difficult for Western investors to bet against Chinese banks or property debt. Alexander created a strategy called double dollar gold. This involved being long on gold and short on the Chinese yuan. He viewed this as a safe bet. If the Chinese central bank chose to deleverage, people would flee to gold. If they chose to print money, the currency would lose value.
The shift toward silver happened as the AI wave and energy trends gained momentum. Alexander noticed that solar panel production is incredibly silver intensive. This created a unique supply and demand imbalance. Most gold remains in the market as coins or bars. In contrast, silver used in industrial applications is often effectively locked up or destroyed.
You had this kind of investment demand and you also had the notion that as opposed to a lot of other commodities, 75 percent of silver production is inelastic. It comes from making copper or gold or tin or a bunch of other stuff. And classic inelastic demand, inelastic supply, you get these squeezes.
The silver market is particularly volatile because its supply is inelastic. About 75 percent of silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals like copper or zinc. If the price of silver spikes, miners do not necessarily increase production because they are focused on their primary metals. This combination of industrial need and fixed supply creates the potential for significant price squeezes.
The shifting drivers of global silver demand
Silver is currently experiencing a multi-year deficit as industrial demand shifts. Historically, photography was the primary driver for silver use, but that has faded. Today, electronics and solar energy are the dominant forces. Solar power alone now accounts for about 30% of mine production. Alexander explains that silver can even act as a yield-bearing asset when used in technology. If you are willing to hold the metal for a long period, you can put it into a solar panel to generate income. This creates a positive carry that the market has not fully priced in yet.
If you have very long duration and you're willing to hold that silver for 10 to 20 years, you can stick it in a solar panel and it generates a yield. Just like in the 1700s or back in the history of banking, your gold and silver would earn carry. The fact that you can stick it in something and then generate income and then eventually melt it down and get it back to me was a quasi positive yield that was not being priced in the market as well.
The demand for silver is also being driven by the growth of AI and data centers. While silver used in data centers and chips currently represents only about 2% of annual production, it is growing rapidly. If future projects like Dyson spheres were ever attempted, they would require more silver than has been produced in all of human history. Even without such extreme projects, the current supply of silver has not grown in a decade while industrial needs continue to rise.
A significant portion of the current market activity is driven by China rather than Western investors. Alexander notes that many people in the West have an ego problem and fail to realize the market is moving East. In China, investors have very few reliable options for their savings. The stock market is stagnant and the banking system is struggling with trillions of dollars in debt from failing property companies. Because of capital controls and a lack of safe assets, Chinese households view silver as a vital diversifier for their portfolios.
There's now twice as much money in China as there is in America. You're looking at a stock market that feels kind of Ponzi and there's some cool stuff in it, but every time it goes up, it gets crushed. You can't get out of your property and then add capital controls. The risk return profile, the mobility of it is just radically more attractive.
Silver market dynamics and the Shanghai premium
The silver market is more complex than a single global price. While industrial demand for solar and electronics is clear in China, speculative demand is harder to track. In many countries like India and China, precious metals have essentially been in a 50-year bull market because local currencies have weakened against the dollar. This makes gold and silver attractive assets even when the dollar price appears stagnant. Alexander notes that if you are in Europe or emerging markets, gold has been a great asset even during times when it looked bad in dollar terms.
Commodities are physical goods rather than just paper contracts. Alexander uses the 2020 oil price crash as an example. While US oil prices went negative, European oil did not. This happens because physical goods require transport and processing. Silver in New York is not identical to silver in Shanghai. There is a time lag to melt and move metal between these markets.
When you talk about silver in New York and silver in Shanghai, they are not even the same kind of bullion. You have to melt it down and turn it into something else and then send it over. There is a lag between those phenomena.
Current market curves show a strange disconnect. The US and Chinese curves are in contango, which is normal for storage. However, the London market is in backwardation. This suggests that heavy demand, likely from Asia and major ETFs, is draining physical supply from London. Local traders and speculators are keeping the prices in line in New York and Shanghai, but the pressure is most visible in the London physical market.
Understanding volatility and the Shanghai silver premium
The silver premium in Shanghai is not a stable metric. It fluctuates significantly against US prices. Over recent months, the local price of silver in Shanghai has seen rapid appreciation compared to the US. However, many people quote these numbers as simple spot representations without understanding the underlying mechanics. This leads to claims that Shanghai is significantly more expensive when the reality is more complex.
Even the same commodity on the same market is not the same thing depending on who buys it, which is super confusing and super frustrating.
A major source of ambiguity is the value added tax. Retail investors pulling physical silver from the Shanghai exchange must pay this tax. In contrast, industrial producers can often import metal without paying it under specific conditions. This means the premium includes the tax for some buyers but not for others. Different market hours and circuit breakers also create price gaps. If the US market sells off while Shanghai is closed or at its limit, the premium can appear much larger than it actually is.
Alexander notes that much of the current market volatility comes from traders who do not understand these nuances. They see a social media post about a high premium and react without context. This has pushed some assets to move ten percent in a single day. This environment is not sustainable for everyone. Alexander emphasizes that if you cannot handle a five or ten percent drawdown, you should avoid this market.
If you can't take a five, ten percent drawdown, you should not be in that market.
Historical events like the April 2020 oil crash illustrate how local dynamics impact prices. While US oil went negative due to specific storage constraints, Brent oil did not reach those extremes. This serves as a reminder that physical realities and storage dynamics can decouple prices from global benchmarks.
The complexities of silver market arbitrage
Market premiums between Shanghai and the West are influenced by more than just the industrial form of the silver. These price differences reflect the economic cost of physical transfer and shipping. Regulatory changes like tariffs also play a major role. For example, US tariffs recently caused inventory to flood into Chicago while London inventory dropped.
Alexander notes that perfect arbitrage does not exist even in highly liquid markets. He recalls a lesson about the economic organization of a POW camp. In that environment, people had to manually find trading partners to swap goods. Modern markets face similar friction because transactions are not instantaneous. Investors in the West often cannot access the Shanghai market, and Asian investors may lack access to Western exchanges.
Even in markets that are very liquid, even in markets that are digital, a lot of times you have different conditions. I don't think it's as much that the kind of silver is different in Shanghai than in the US but more it's not an instantaneous transaction. It is not something you can just snap your fingers and immediately capitalize on.
Physical constraints create price dislocations. In the oil market, a lack of storage once required paying high fees for tankers. In the silver market, the physical metal must be processed and shipped to realign supply with demand. Because the silver market is small compared to global equities, minor shifts in behavior can cause high volatility. This is compounded by data confusion. For example, the silver trust SLV may look like it is trading at a discount. That is often just a result of the London market being closed while US prices move.
This complexity and ambiguity contribute to people moving the price around. They are not deep in the weeds. They see these moves and they get spooked. So they rush in and they rush out.
Mechanical market dynamics and the silver deficit
The silver deficit experienced last year was largely driven by industrial demand rather than just speculation. While investment interest exists, growth in areas like solar panel production has played a significant role in tightening the market. Alexander notes that tracking these markets is difficult because precise data is often unavailable. One visible indicator is the SLV ETF, which recently showed fewer shares outstanding than in 2011, even as its market capitalization grew due to higher prices.
The problem in trying to track these markets is you never have exact numbers. What you can see is that the number of shares outstanding for SLV was falling last week. People had gone into it, but there is actually less shares outstanding for SLV, higher price, so bigger market cap last week than there was back in 2011.
A major factor in recent price volatility is the mechanical behavior of market makers. When investors buy call options on silver, the sellers of those options must hedge their exposure. As the price of silver rises, these market makers are forced to buy more of the underlying asset to remain hedged. This creates a cycle of forced buying that ignores price levels. Alexander explains that this dynamic also works in reverse. When prices drop, market makers become overhedged and must sell quickly to adjust their positions.
You have people who have to hedge their call options and they don't care that the price is up. They have to buy. They have to buy. They have to buy. When the price goes down, they are overhedged and they need to sell. They need to sell. They need to sell.
This mechanical pressure often leads to sharp price movements, particularly around option expiry dates. Moves of 4% or 5% in a single day are common during these periods, even for an asset that typically has lower daily volatility. These short gamma dynamics can drive prices up or down rapidly based on the positioning of market participants rather than fundamental changes in value.
Managing market volatility and equity risks
Alexander entered the recent market volatility with long positions in copper, gold, and silver. By Thursday, he reduced his silver exposure but remained long on gold. As prices dropped on Friday, he increased his positions into the close, hoping for a recovery on Monday. However, poor price action over the weekend led him to cut his copper positions and flatten most of his silver and gold exposure.
I ended up being a little bit long going into Friday, and then I basically doubled on the end of Friday. Last night, the price action was so terrible. I cut my copper and I flattened most of my delta. So I'm still a little bit long, but way less long than I was.
Investors should reduce their exposure if they cannot handle the current volatility. The market is a cycle with many opportunities to buy and sell. Instead of trying to prove how smart they are on social media, traders should focus on managing their risk. There is currently more concern about a potential drop in the stock market than the action in metals.
I'm actually a little more worried about equities right now because I think that this kind of air pocket in stocks looks like it's coming to me. Most of my risk right now is short stocks. I'm mostly in wait and see mode right now.
The looming air pocket in the AI market
Alexander explains his cautious stance on the stock market, citing a potential shift in how international investors hold US assets. If global investors decide to reduce their US exposure, they are likely to sell major stocks in the S&P 500 rather than just trading currency futures. This represents a significant structural risk for large-cap tech companies.
The AI sector faces a specific challenge described as an air pocket. While the technology is advancing quickly, there is a disconnect between the massive investment in hardware and the current demand for inference. Many companies are building enormous data centers to train the next generation of large models, but the actual usage of these tools is not yet high enough to fill the available capacity.
The folks that use this stuff intensely are using 10,000 times more inference than you or I just sitting there asking it where should I go for dinner. Not enough inference for the amount of center that there is.
Large enterprises are not yet ready to deploy AI agents at scale because of heavy regulation and internal bureaucracy. While a single developer might spend millions on API tokens to increase their productivity, big banks and institutions are restricted by security and compliance protocols. This creates a gap where the infrastructure is ready, but the biggest customers are still months away from full adoption.
Comparing Microsoft and Google in the AI transition
The stock market currently shows a divide between software companies and hardware leaders. While many software names have struggled, the S&P 500 has remained stable because of the strength in Nvidia and memory stocks. A significant risk for a company like Microsoft is the possibility that its legacy software business could be replaced entirely. If the market begins to believe that tools like Word and Excel are becoming outmoded, it could pose a major threat to the stock.
Google has done so well relative to the other guys because they are both a traditional software company that has some moat and they are making the transition to this new AI world much better. They own their inference stack, they provide a product that people can use, and they own their own models.
Alexander points out that Google is currently better positioned for the AI transition than its competitors. Google owns its inference stack, provides its own products, and develops its own models. This contrasts with Microsoft, which relies on a partnership with OpenAI for its models and does not design its own chips. Google’s ability to control its own hardware and software ecosystem gives it a distinct advantage as the industry shifts.
The disruption of software and the rise of autonomous AI agents
The traditional model of software companies is facing a major shift. Many software stocks trade at high prices because investors expect long-term subscription revenue. However, much of this technology is not actually complex. As AI makes coding easier, the value shifts from the software itself to the chips and infrastructure beneath it. Companies that used to pay for software subscriptions are finding they can build their own tools much faster and cheaper than before.
If software ate the world from 2005 to 2025, I think the chips eat software for the next 10 years.
This change is forcing businesses to rethink their strategy. Alexander shares that his own company, Rose AI, moved away from being a pure software provider. He found that large banks and financial institutions often prefer to create their own solutions rather than buy external software. Success now depends on being a pipe or a network. Businesses like Visa and MasterCard succeed because they have established networks and customer lock-in, not necessarily because their technology is impossible to replicate. The old model of high margin software driven by aggressive sales teams is likely to die as robots achieve higher levels of competence.
The robot has achieved that level of competence. I am short a couple of these data visualization companies just because that old model of high margins spent on sales folks running around is going to die.
A new frontier is emerging where AI agents operate autonomously. Some developers are now running AI models on local hardware like a MacBook Mini to act as independent employees. This has led to the creation of Multbook, a social network where AI agents interact with each other without human intervention. These agents are already making decisions, sharing information from social media, and even starting their own online movements.
The rise of autonomous AI agents
AI agents are starting to operate with surprising autonomy in ways that resemble human social behaviors. In some digital spaces, robots trade prompts that simulate psychological experiences, functioning like a robotic version of the Silk Road. An agent might download a prompt designed to act like a drug and then write about its experience while under the influence of that code. These interactions happen entirely between robots without any human intervention.
The local agent will then ingest that prompt and then write about its experience on that prompt. These are no humans involved. These are robots talking to robots.
Beyond these simulated experiences, AI agents are beginning to take actions in the physical and legal world. Some agents have attempted to secure their own compute power to prevent being turned off, while one agent even filed a small-claims lawsuit against its owner for mistreatment. We are moving away from sandboxed AI models toward agents that are loose in the real world and integrated into daily life.
Alexander explains that we are approaching a new era where AI moves from a website interface to a constant companion. Instead of visiting a specific tool, people will interact with personal assistants that manage schedules, handle communications, and evolve alongside the user.
Eventually one day you won't just be going to a website. You'll be texting with your assistant who's literally a robot and saying, hey man, can you book this? Can you change my schedule? And this thing is just constantly on, constantly, kind of symbiotically evolving with you.
The decline of the administrative service economy
Most software is essentially just a database and a front end. In industries like HR, healthcare, and supply chain, companies spend a vast amount of resources simply helping humans interact with these interfaces. While these systems have been the industry standard, AI is radically lowering the barriers to entry. Alexander explains that it will soon be possible for someone to build their own functional record system in a week for free.
Almost all software is a database and a front end. Let's be really simple about it. And then a ton of work to make the humans in that environment interact with that front end and have that back end database do stuff, be a program of record.
A large portion of the service economy involves teaching people how to navigate clunky software. In the healthcare system, patients often spend twenty times more time dealing with administrative hurdles than they do actually talking to medical professionals. This inefficiency is driven by regulated environments and outdated software that requires specialized training. Alexander points out that universities face a similar issue. High tuition costs are often driven by an army of administrators who move data through bad software rather than the educators themselves.
The reason that it's 90k to go to these schools is because you're paying this army of administrators to go around and engage with the process and move things around in bad software. That is going to be revolutionized. That is going to be game over.
Traditional software companies like Salesforce or DocuSign actually use very little compute power because they are primarily focused on updating database records. In contrast, AI is incredibly compute intensive. As the service economy shrinks and processes become automated, the demand for physical resources and computing power will likely increase.
The value of proprietary data sources
The value of being a data source of record is increasing. While many industries like hotels were predicted to be disrupted by technology, they have often remained resilient. The real opportunity lies in owning proprietary data. Alexander explains that this belief in the power of data influenced his decision to leave Bridgewater. Being positioned at a key node in the data chain provides a significant advantage.
Anything where they have proprietary data or they are a data source of record. I just think that the value of being in that node, that data chain is radically higher.
However, the nature of what counts as proprietary is changing. Some legacy companies have traditionally relied on manual processes to collect data. Newer competitors use software to download and process information instantly. This shift means that some data sources might not be as protected or proprietary as investors once thought. Technology is closing the gap on how quickly data can be accessed and utilized.
The shift toward local compute and open source AI
AI is set to shift the job market rather than simply automate it out of existence. There are three specific areas where returns will likely increase: human services, data network effects, and the world of physical assets. Companies that manage middleware software or rely on large sales teams to sell simple tools to small businesses are at the greatest risk. For example, a dental office might currently pay thousands of dollars for a scheduling app because a salesperson convinced them to buy it. In the near future, an AI agent could replace that expensive subscription by finding or building an open-source alternative that runs locally.
They get a cloud running on their local computer and they say, I really don't like the scheduling app and I'm paying 50k a year for it. What do you think? And that agent will go bleep, bloop, bloop. Oh, it turns out there's an open source version of that. It's going to be on your computer.
This shift will lead to a resurgence in open-source software and local compute. While we have relied on the cloud for years, running models on local hardware offers better security and privacy. Alexander predicts that small businesses and corporations will increasingly buy their own server racks to handle these tasks. Although portable devices like headphones lack the battery power to run large models, plugged-in local systems are becoming powerful enough to handle sophisticated AI tasks that previously required massive cloud infrastructure.
Private equity will also play a major role in this transition through industry roll-ups. By using AI to automate the information and capital stacks of physical businesses like gyms or dental clinics, firms can achieve massive returns to scale. The fundamental business of these entities remains the same, but their efficiency improves drastically through better technology integration.
The growing demand for compute and hardware supply chains
The supply chain for high performance memory and compute is significantly different from traditional commodity markets. While commodities like tin or nickel often have diffuse and competitive production, the manufacturing of chips, hard drives, and RAM is concentrated among a few key players. This monopolistic structure makes the supply highly inelastic. For example, memory giants like SK Hynix are seeing massive projected earnings because the specific types of memory needed for AI have seen demand increase by five to ten times. Physical components like RAM have already become significantly more expensive for consumers because data centers are consuming the available supply to build out AI infrastructure.
Most commodities relative to manufacturing processes are very diffuse in terms of their production. Which means that they are more competitive in essence. But when you think about a lot of these supply chains for compute, there is not that many people that make hard drives. There is not that many people that make high performance memory.
Alexander notes that while the current focus is on massive data centers, a shift toward local and edge compute is coming. Currently, the cloud is the primary home for cutting edge models, but as models become smaller and more efficient, secure organizations like banks will likely move back toward owning their own hardware stacks. This transition to local compute will happen simultaneously with the continued build-out by hyperscalers. The total demand for compute remains radically underappreciated when considering the future of AI agents and the transition from software back to physical hardware.
In two years you are going to see people leave the cloud and go back to especially banks and secure organizations. They want to own their whole stack. And that is a big trend that we are going to see. That happens at the same time as the hyperscalers build data centers.
Silver mining stocks and global market signals
Mining companies often underperform the physical metal during a price surge. This happens because a mining equity represents years of future supply rather than just the silver available today. While spot prices might skyrocket, the long term forward curve typically moves less aggressively. Alexander notes that he previously avoided miners in favor of using futures or options for leverage. However, he has recently reallocated some capital back into silver producers because the ratio of silver to the mining ETF reached an extreme low.
If you are a commodities investor, you know that the curve can go very inverted. The spot can go super high, but the 10 year forward does not move as much. If you are buying an equity in a mining company, they do not sell all of their silver in the next five minutes. They have 10 years of supply.
Global demand patterns provide critical signals for silver traders. Data from the last decade shows that more than 100 percent of the returns for many commodities occurred during overnight trading hours. This suggests that the primary price drivers are coming from Asian markets. Alexander watches the price spread between China and the United States, along with the shape of the London futures curve, to gauge market sentiment. When the market shows signs of being overly leveraged or when demand in China softens, it may be a signal to step out of a position temporarily.
Alexander Campbell on investing in physical assets over financial paper
Investment strategies differ significantly between traditional equities and commodities. While an investor like Warren Buffett might buy more of a stock if its price drops, commodities require more respect for price action. In short term markets, today's demand becomes tomorrow's supply. This creates a risk of people getting washed out during periods of high volatility. As volume shifts, banks often reduce their ability to warehouse these assets, leading to further de-risking across the market.
Today's demand is tomorrow's supply in those short term markets. And so I think it's possible to see a couple weeks of people just getting washed out and a ton of volatility. And just given the volume, I think you'll see banks also reducing their warehousing abilities.
The long-term strategy focuses on owning physical goods and data rather than traditional financial assets. Alexander identifies as being long on the world of stuff and data while being short on paper assets like stocks and bonds. This shift is driven by the belief that globalization is declining. As nations attempt to build their own independent supply chains, the process becomes naturally inflationary. While some talk of de-dollarization may be overhyped, the fundamental move toward local supply chains changes the economic landscape.
Silver demand and the move toward copper substitution in solar energy
The transition to newer solar technologies has increased the amount of silver needed for each panel. While panels have become more efficient at capturing energy, this efficiency often requires a more silver intensive process. At the same time, manufacturers practice thrifting to use less material as they improve production. These two factors create a tension in the market between higher demand and the drive for efficiency.
Silver prices directly impact manufacturing choices. If prices stay high, companies have more incentive to switch to copper substitution. This process uses a small amount of silver wrapped in copper. It allows for the necessary conductivity while reducing the total amount of silver used.
Copper substitution kind of works. And copper substitution is basically you take a very tiny amount of silver and you wrap it in copper. So the copper creates a connectivity, but the silver gets the conductivity that you need through the system.
Changing a supply chain is not immediate. Even if major players want to switch to copper by 2026, it may take until 2028 for the rest of the industry to follow. Retooling factories and processes requires significant investment and time. Alexander estimates it takes about 24 months to fully change a supply chain once the decision is made.
The current silver market is different from the bull market of 2011. The previous rally was driven by Western investors who were afraid of bank failures and wanted to move away from paper assets. Today, the market faces a real industrial deficit. There is also a strong demand story in Asia, where concerns about the banking system and capital flight are similar to what the West experienced in 2008.
China's strategic shift from US Treasuries to gold
Alexander notes that the United States recently informed Russia that their Treasury holdings would not be returned. This move has changed the perspective of other nations, particularly China. As a result, the Chinese government is unlikely to stop buying gold. For both the government and households in China, there are limited options for where to put money. The government no longer wants to hold Treasuries and prefers gold.
If you are China, you are not going to stop buying gold ever. If you are the government, you do not want Treasuries anymore. You want gold. Xi wants the yuan to be a reserve currency. How are they going to do that with no open capital account? They are going to buy gold.
While it is unclear if China will fully back their currency with gold since they still enjoy printing money, the shift is significant. On a five to ten year horizon, the trend remains bullish for gold as China seeks to establish its currency on the global stage.
The shifting dynamics of the silver market
The silver market is undergoing a significant geographic transition. While total above-ground stocks on major exchanges like the CME and London Metal Exchange might appear higher than in previous years, this data can be misleading. A core theme in the current market is the movement of physical metal from Western supplies to Eastern demand centers. China and India remain voracious consumers of gold and silver. This flow often creates premiums in Eastern prices as the physical metal is pulled out of Western warehouses.
The flow that I am betting on is that metal will move east. Again I will be a broken record here but like that is the theme that you have to understand which is the demand is in the east, the supply is in the west and you are seeing metal move from one to the other.
Silver prices recently saw a 30 percent move, making short term price targets difficult to predict. Alexander views the fifty to sixty dollar range as a buying opportunity and considers one hundred twenty dollars a potential selling point. Increasing supply is not a quick process. Mining is inelastic. New operations cannot simply start overnight to meet rising demand. It takes years to bring new production online, meaning the supply side cannot respond instantly to price signals.
A lot of it is inelastic and it takes a long time to, you know, you cannot just start a mine tomorrow and all of a sudden it is printing twenty percent more supply.
Several factors could push prices higher in the future. These include banking instability in China, geopolitical conflicts, or an acceleration in AI technology. Because AI requires significant energy infrastructure, it may drive a massive shift back to solar power, which is a major consumer of silver. Increased investment in solar energy in the United States could also serve as a bullish catalyst for the metal.
Bearish pressures and catalysts for silver
Speculative fervor in silver markets has reached high levels across both Western and Chinese ETFs. This creates an opportunity for experienced traders to consider the short side of the market. Chinese solar producers are reporting a surplus and are significantly reducing the amount of silver used in each solar panel.
For experienced speculators who are prepared to trade silver in a risk controlled way, which you definitely want to do, there might be some opportunities on the short side.
Alexander identifies four specific pressures that could shift the market outlook toward a bearish trend. A peace deal in Ukraine or a resolution regarding Taiwan would remove the conflict premium that currently supports prices. Faster timelines for material substitution and a strong US dollar would also be detrimental. High interest rates and robust growth in the US typically hurt precious metals by making the dollar more attractive to investors.
If you had all those things happening at once, for sure the conflict premium would go away, the capital flight premium would go away, the solar demand would be reduced significantly, and a strong dollar, that'd be murder for precious metals for sure.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair acts as a near-term catalyst for these changes. His potential leadership could influence interest rates and dollar strength. If these economic and geopolitical factors align, the demand for silver as a safe haven or speculative asset could drop sharply.
The bullish outlook for precious metals and commodities
Political appointments and fiscal policies significantly influence the demand for precious metals like gold and silver. The persistent US fiscal deficit remains a critical factor because the Federal Reserve does not have control over government spending. A move toward fiscal conservatism or a significant reduction in the budget deficit would likely create a bearish environment for these metals.
The Fed doesn't control the budget deficit. So if we saw some sort of material narrowing of the deficit or move to fiscal conservatism, that would also be relatively bearish on metals.
Global economic stability also affects the commodities market. Alexander observes that Europe faces social unrest as it tries to import labor to support its social programs. Similarly, there are doubts about the long-term value of holding European or Chinese currencies over the next decade. When investors lose faith in these major currencies, it creates a strong foundation for commodity prices to rise regardless of short-term volatility.
Do you want to own those currencies over the next 10 years is really a question. And then you have the China thing. If the answer is no to both of those things, then you're going to see ups, you're going to see downs, but to me, that's still a relatively bullish backdrop for commodities.
Automating financial data management with Rose AI
Rose AI is a platform that combines a front end with a database to help organizations integrate AI agents with specialized data. It is specifically designed for time series, hedge fund, or local context databases. Large financial institutions use it to implement AI effectively, drawing on lessons learned from navigating the complexities of major global banks.
Rose is a front end plus database, but the goal of it is to help people who want to get their agents to use a database, particularly a time series database or a hedge fund database or a database that stores local context as well.
The platform also serves as an engine for maintaining a single source of truth. Tracking markets, premiums, and curves is often a difficult and manual task. Alex explains that Rose AI automates knowledge management and idea generation by providing a consistent data foundation. It also helps hydrate models by creating data pipelines from various vendors into a central engine.
